Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?

Q: What are the current Predict.Fun odds for "Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30"?

The current odds are Yes 85.0% and No 15.0%. A Yes price of 85.0% means the market estimates a 85.0% probability the outcome occurs. Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell shares.

Q: How do I trade this Predict.Fun market?

Trading happens on Predict.Fun directly. You buy Yes or No shares at current prices; shares pay $1 in USDT at resolution if the outcome matches. PredictFunScan tracks live odds, volume, and trader activity but does not facilitate trading.

Question

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for June 30, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI’s valuation at resolution, each outcome will resolve to 50-50.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Answer

Yes — 85.0% implied probability

Answer

No — 15.0% implied probability

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?

Live market data

Frequently asked questions

What are the current Predict.Fun odds for "Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30"?

How do I trade this Predict.Fun market?

About Predict.Fun and PredictFunScan