Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Q: What are the current Predict.Fun odds for "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting"?

The current odds are Yes 0.1% and No 99.9%. A Yes price of 0.1% means the market estimates a 0.1% probability the outcome occurs. Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell shares.

Q: How do I trade this Predict.Fun market?

Trading happens on Predict.Fun directly. You buy Yes or No shares at current prices; shares pay $1 in USDT at resolution if the outcome matches. PredictFunScan tracks live odds, volume, and trader activity but does not facilitate trading.

Question

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Answer

No — 99.9% implied probability

Answer

Yes — 0.1% implied probability

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

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Frequently asked questions

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