Will 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before May 31' YES holders on Polymarket receive any money before July?

Q: What are the current Predict.Fun odds for "Will 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before May 31' YES holders on Polymarket receive any money before July"?

The current odds are Yes 1.6% and No 98.5%. A Yes price of 1.6% means the market estimates a 1.6% probability the outcome occurs. Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell shares.

Q: How do I trade this Predict.Fun market?

Trading happens on Predict.Fun directly. You buy Yes or No shares at current prices; shares pay $1 in USDT at resolution if the outcome matches. PredictFunScan tracks live odds, volume, and trader activity but does not facilitate trading.

Question

Polymarket recently published a controversial clarification on a market about whether MicroStrategy would sell any Bitcoin before the end of May. This is a market on whether users who bought “Yes” shares will receive any money.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if users who bought “Yes” shares on the “May 31, 2026” market of the Polymarket event “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?” receive monetary compensation from either market resolution or as direct reimbursement or refund from Polymarket by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “receiving compensation from market resolution” requires the “Yes” shares being redeemable by any amount of USD collateral on the Polymarket platform, whether the market resolves to “Yes”, “50/50” or any other on-chain state that allows users to claim USD in exchange for Yes shares.

Similarly, “direct reimbursement or refund” requires official Polymarket staff to confirm that funds have been distributed to any user who either currently holds “Yes” or who held “Yes” at some point in the market.

If the market on Polymarket has not resolved to either “Yes” or “50/50” by Jun 30, 2026 and no official confirmation of refunds is made public by July 5th, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”, regardless of whether new information is published afterwards.

The resolution source for refunds on this market will be official information from Polymarket staff as well as their X account. Polymarket’s platform and on-chain data will be used to verify the market’s resolution.

Answer

No — 98.5% implied probability

Answer

Yes — 1.6% implied probability

Will 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before May 31' YES holders on Polymarket receive any money before July?

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