Will Elon Musk tweet between 400 and 499 times between May 18th - May 25th 2026?

Q: What are the current Predict.Fun odds for "Will Elon Musk tweet between 400 and 499 times between May 18th - May 25th 2026"?

The current odds are Yes 85.0% and No 15.0%. A Yes price of 85.0% means the market estimates a 85.0% probability the outcome occurs. Odds update continuously as traders buy and sell shares.

Q: How do I trade this Predict.Fun market?

Trading happens on Predict.Fun directly. You buy Yes or No shares at current prices; shares pay $1 in USDT at resolution if the outcome matches. PredictFunScan tracks live odds, volume, and trader activity but does not facilitate trading.

Question

This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET to May 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive).

**Date Range (Exclusive):**
Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count.

**Posts That Count:**
- Main feed posts
- Quote posts
- Reposts

**Replies:**
Requirements for rules to count:
- The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user.
- Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count.

**Examples:**
- Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785)
- Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576)
- Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133)
- Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450)

**Additional Rules:**
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total
- Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total

**Resolution Source:**
The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Answer

Yes — 85.0% implied probability

Answer

No — 15.0% implied probability

Will Elon Musk tweet between 400 and 499 times between May 18th - May 25th 2026?

Live market data

Frequently asked questions

What are the current Predict.Fun odds for "Will Elon Musk tweet between 400 and 499 times between May 18th - May 25th 2026"?

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